Market Weather

ALPHA CAPITAL · MARKET RISK CONTEXT

Historical US-market seasonality for the current calendar month, shown beside Alpha AI's current closed-trade performance.

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Historical US Market Risk

Based on completed historical observations only. Alpha AI does not alter this score.

-- Risk / 100

Favorable Normal Caution Defensive High Risk

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Risk posture --

Alpha AI · Current Month

Current closed-trade performance.

LIVE

Cumulative closed-trade percentage · Non-compounded

Closed trades —

Arithmetic sum of individual closed-trade percentages.

Historical Market Profile

Completed historical observations only.

US Market = equal-weight average of S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Dow Jones.

S&P 500 average —

Nasdaq-100 average —

Dow average —

US Market average —

— Negative years

— Years at or below −5%

— All 3 indices negative

— Worst historical year

Historical Heatmap

Year-by-year completed market returns for this calendar month.

Alpha AI is shown only for overlapping years where monthly Alpha data exists.

Year	S&P 500	Nasdaq-100	Dow	US Market	Alpha AI
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Market values are calendar-month index returns. Alpha AI uses a different methodology and is displayed for context only. Current partial US-market months are not inserted into the historical heatmap.

How to Read These Results

Market-index returns and Alpha AI performance use different calculation methods. They are displayed together to provide market context, not as a direct benchmark-return comparison.

US Market

Calendar-month index return

S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Dow figures represent each index's percentage change from the previous month-end close to the current month-end close.

One return per index for each completed calendar month.
US Market is the equal-weight average of the three indices.
Partial current months are excluded from the historical heatmap and seasonal averages.

Alpha AI

Sum of closed-trade percentages

Alpha AI monthly performance is the arithmetic sum of the percentage result of every trade closed during that month, using a fixed position amount per trade. Results are not compounded and do not represent a fully invested portfolio return.

Only closed trades are included in the monthly figure.
Open positions are included only after they are closed.
Multiple trades can occur across different assets during the same month.

Example: three closed trades of +2%, +3% and −1% are reported as +4% Alpha AI performance for those trades.

Purpose of the comparison: to show how Alpha AI has behaved during historically favorable and unfavorable US-market environments. Alpha AI percentages should not be read as 1:1 outperformance versus an index return.

Risk Disclosure
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risk and losses can occur. Historical market data, Alpha AI results and the Market Weather indicator are provided for informational and analytical purposes only. The Market Weather score reflects historical seasonality and is not a prediction of future market direction or a guarantee of future performance.